ACT4CAP27 at the EU AgRI 2040 Conference

Future agricultural choices will shape Europe’s agri-food system

ACT4CAP27 explores how different policy choices and societal transitions can create interconnected effects across agriculture, food markets, trade, the environment and society.

Why integrated assessment?

No policy choice affects only one part of the food system

Agricultural and food-system decisions can trigger effects across multiple sectors and policy objectives. Changes in consumption can influence agricultural demand and farm income; environmental ambitions can interact with land use and production; digitalisation can affect productivity and competitiveness; and changes in market integration can reshape trade and production patterns.

Understanding these connections requires integrated assessment.

ACT4CAP27 brings together different models, indicators, evidence and perspectives to explore how these interactions may unfold under alternative future scenarios.

Here are four examples…

What happens if...?

Explore four deliberately different questions that illustrate the type of complex policy choices that integrated assessment can help analyse:
WHAT HAPPENS IF agriculture becomes increasingly digital?
Technology • Adoption • Productivity • Resource efficiency • Competitiveness
ACT4CAP27 explores how technological change can affect agricultural production, farm performance and resource use.
Explore the scenario →
WHAT HAPPENS IF biodiversity goals become more ambitious?
Land use • Biodiversity • Production • Climate • Food systems
ACT4CAP27 explores how environmental ambitions can create interconnected effects across agriculture and the wider food system.
Explore the scenario →
WHAT HAPPENS IF Ukraine joins the EU in 2030?
Markets • Trade • Production • Regional interactions • EU food system dynamics
ACT4CAP27 explores the potential implications of this major structural change for European agriculture and food systems.
Explore the scenario →
WHAT HAPPENS IF Europeans eat less sugar?
Health • Food demand • Agriculture • Trade • Farm income
ACT4CAP27 explores how changes in consumption can translate into changes across agricultural markets and food systems.
Explore the scenario →
Complex questions require integrated answers

The four scenarios illustrate a common challenge: policy questions rarely fit within a single sector, model or impact category.

Complex questions require integrated answers

Future agricultural policy questions rarely fit within a single sector, model or impact category. A change in one part of the agri-food system can create effects elsewhere — across production, markets, trade, farm incomes, consumers and the environment.

ACT4CAP27 brings these different perspectives together to explore how such interactions may unfold under alternative future scenarios.

By connecting modelling approaches with indicators, scientific evidence and scenario analysis, the project helps make interactions, trade-offs and potential synergies visible across the food system before policy choices are implemented.

Different questions → connected models → integrated evidence → better-informed choices

Building Europe’s capacity for agricultural policy intelligence

ACT4CAP27 builds on Europe’s existing modelling expertise and research capacity to strengthen how future agricultural and food-system policies can be explored and assessed.

The project connects established models, emerging analytical approaches, knowledge and expertise across the European research and policy-support landscape. It also develops new tools and collaborative resources to make this capacity more accessible and useful for future policy analysis.

The aim is to support exploration of policy alternatives and their wider implications, providing a stronger basis for informed discussion and decision-making.

ACT4CAP27 within the agri-policy modelling ecosystem of Horizon Europe projects

ACT4CAP27 is part of a broader evolution of research projects funded by the Horizon Europe programme that is strengthening Europe’s capacity to understand agricultural transitions and assess future policy choices.

Earlier and parallel initiatives contribute complementary elements to this emerging knowledge and modelling ecosystem.

Together, these initiatives contribute to a shift towards more integrated, collaborative and forward-looking agricultural policy intelligence.

For ACT4CAP27, the focus is on connecting established modelling capacities, indicators, evidence and stakeholder perspectives so that future agricultural policy questions can be examined from a wider food-system perspective.

Current achievements

Building the foundations for integrated food-system analysis

ACT4CAP27 has already established important foundations for analysing future agricultural and food-system policy choices.

These include an operational food-system framework, multi-dimensional sustainability indicators, approaches for policy scenario identification and analysis, and a prototype database and scenario exploration capacity.

Together, these provide a foundation for connecting different evidence and analytical approaches and exploring the wider consequences of future policy choices.

ACT4CAP27 has developed an operational framework for analysing food-system outcomes across multiple sustainability dimensions. It brings together a structured set of indicators and data to support the assessment of environmental, economic and social aspects of food-system performance.

The framework provides a common basis for organising, interpreting and connecting sustainability evidence across different policy questions and modelling approaches, supporting more integrated analysis of future agricultural and food-system choices.

 Read more

A structured approach for designing and analysing future agricultural policy scenarios, connecting policy questions with implementation assumptions, complementary models, indicators and wider agri-food effects.

Read more →

A shared digital environment for managing, harmonising and exploring data and scenario results, supporting reproducible workflows and connections between models and analytical modules.

Read more →

Building on these foundations, ACT4CAP27 is now developing further resources to connect modelling approaches, evidence and users.

What comes next?

Building future capacity for food-system policy analysis

A future collaborative environment designed to strengthen integration and interoperability between analytical approaches.

A future resource for connecting evidence, scenarios and policy choices in the exploration of alternative pathways for European food systems.

A future interface for making project knowledge, analytical resources and opportunities for engagement more accessible.

From policy questions to policy intelligence

ACT4CAP27 connects evidence, models and stakeholders to help Europe understand the wider consequences of agricultural and food-system choices.

The four scenarios presented at the EU Agri 2040 Conference are examples of a broader approach: asking complex policy questions, connecting different analytical perspectives and making possible consequences visible.

What future agricultural policy question would you like to explore?

Please fill in the form to share a question, emerging challenge or possible policy change that you think could benefit from integrated analysis.

2026euagri2040 conference form

Your policy question*

Which areas could be affected?

Which areas could be affected?

About you

Stay connected with ACT4CAP27

ACT4CAP27 is building an ongoing community around agricultural policy modelling, evidence and policy dialogue. The project brings together researchers, policymakers and stakeholders through workshops, consultations, policy dialogues and capacity-building activities, creating opportunities to exchange knowledge and explore emerging policy questions together.

Get involved

  • Stakeholder activities

Join future workshops, consultations and policy dialogues where agricultural policy questions, modelling approaches and emerging results are discussed with stakeholders. Be part of the ACT4CAP27 Stakeholder Platform → 

  • Capacity building

Explore training, learning opportunities and resources designed to strengthen knowledge and skills in agricultural policy modelling and analysis. Explore ACT4CAP27 Capacity Building → 

  • AMYRN – Agricultural Model Young Researchers Network

Connect with the next generation of agricultural modellers through AMYRN, supporting knowledge exchange, networking and capacity building across the modelling community. Explore AMYRN → 

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