Exploring Future Farm and Food Policies: ACT4CAP27 Team Advances Scenario Planning
On 12 May 2025, a WP6 meeting was convened to discuss finalising the ACT4CAP27 fast-track scenarios— tools used to explore with the current models setup how different policy choices could shape the future of farming, food, trade, and sustainability in Europe and beyond.
One major area of focus was the future relationship between the EU and Ukraine. Experts are exploring several “what-if” scenarios—from Ukraine joining the EU, to how post-conflict recovery could affect farming and trade. This work includes looking at how these developments might impact different types of farms, using specialised farm-level data.
The team is also developing scenarios that consider climate goals, biodiversity protection, and global trade:
- Climate scenarios look at how pricing greenhouse gas emissions or rewarding carbon removal can help meet the EU’s climate neutrality goals.
- Biodiversity scenarios explore the effects of protecting and restoring nature, in line with the EU’s Nature Restoration Law.
- Trade scenarios examine how policies like the EU’s Deforestation Regulation could influence imports of agricultural goods.
Together, these scenarios will be combined into an integrated view to assess their joint impact on Europe’s food system and environment.
Another scenario focuses on a sugar tax, testing how such a policy could shift consumer choices and agricultural production—though modelling complexities remain, especially in tracking sugar content across foods.
A revised Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenario is also in the works, featuring elements highlighted in DG AGRI’s Vision for Agriculture and Food, such as digitalisation in farming, which could boost productivity, and mirror clauses, which would apply EU standards (e.g. for animal welfare and pesticide use) to imported products.
These scenarios are developed in close collaboration with the BrightSpace and LAMASUS Horizon projects, ensuring alignment and added value across initiatives.
The ACT4CAP27 team aims to finalise descriptions for each scenario later this month, before sharing summaries with the European Commission to support forward-looking policy development.
Source: Thünen
