WP6 partners met online on 27 January 2026 to review preliminary fast-track scenario results and align modelling work ahead of the annual meeting. Discussions focused on baseline consistency, scenario design, and early insights relevant to future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) decisions.
Most fast-track scenarios — including CAP, Biodiversity, and Sugar Tax — will use the shared BrightSpace and LAMASUS baselines. The Ukraine Accession scenario will rely on a dedicated baseline reflecting Ukraine’s post-war recovery and potential EU accession from 2030.
Progress was reported across all scenarios. The CAP scenario team is synthesising evidence from meta-analyses on agricultural technologies to inform scenario design and modelling.
The Ukraine Accession scenario, implemented in AGMEMOD, explores impacts on markets, land use, prices, and distributional effects for EU and Ukrainian farmers.
Preliminary results from biodiversity and mitigation scenarios indicate that combined policy approaches deliver the largest emission reductions while limiting negative impacts on production and land use, though differences between models require further analysis.
The Sugar Tax scenario links dietary change, consumer behaviour, and agricultural production, suggesting differentiated taxation could effectively reduce sugar intake.
WP6 partners agreed on next steps to finalise scenario definitions, strengthen cross-model alignment, and share preliminary results ahead of the annual meeting, supporting timely, policy-relevant input to the post-2027 CAP debate.
Source: Thünen, POS
