On 23 March 2026, Tamás Krisztin presented new joint research at the 100th annual conference of the Agricultural Economics Society in Oxford, contributing to ACT4CAP27’s work on strengthening the analytical foundations of EU agricultural policy.
The paper, “Do the differences matter? A multi-model assessment of uncertainty in EU agricultural futures,” is a collaborative effort between ACT4CAP27, BrightSpace and LAMASUS. It provides a systematic comparison of baseline projections generated by six leading agricultural and land-use models, offering new insights into how structural differences between models influence policy-relevant outcomes.
Strengthening the role of baselines in CAP analysis
Baseline projections play a critical role in assessing Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms, climate targets and market developments. This research demonstrates that even under harmonised assumptions—covering population, economic growth, productivity and current policies—model structures lead to differing projections in key areas.
The findings highlight a clear distinction:
- Robust results at EU level, including yield-driven production growth, moderate land contraction, and modest declines in agricultural emissions
- Significant divergence in trade outcomes, commodity composition, and Member State-level impacts
For ACT4CAP27, these results reinforce the importance of integrating multi-model evidence when evaluating policy options, particularly where distributional effects and market dynamics are concerned.
Addressing today’s policy challenges: the “challenging baseline”
A central feature of the study is the introduction of a “challenging baseline” scenario, reflecting persistent structural pressures on the agri-food system. This includes sustained increases in energy and fertiliser prices, trade fragmentation, and adverse climate impacts.
This scenario is highly relevant in the current policy context, where input cost volatility—especially fertiliser prices linked to energy markets—continues to shape farm-level decisions and sectoral competitiveness. The analysis shows that while some aggregate trends remain stable, uncertainty intensifies in areas critical for policy design, particularly trade and commodity shifts.
ACT4CAP27 contribution
ACT4CAP27 contributes to this work by advancing methodologies that improve the robustness, transparency and policy relevance of baseline projections. The project’s engagement in multi-model comparison exercises supports better-informed decision-making by clearly distinguishing between structurally robust trends and outcomes that depend on modelling assumptions.
Further results from this research will be shared once the paper is published following the current embargo.
